Ongoing limited supply to ECX with Djimmah 5 trading at around 175 c/lb FOB equivalent; FOB buyers are bidding around 95 c/lb and the local market is paying 350 c/lb, so it is no surprise that shippers do not have anything to sell and that coffee is not arriving at ECX warehouses. Any coffee that is around is finding it’s way to the local market illegally but the incentive is too great. Volumes of Naturals at ECX are pitiful, yesterday 166 MT of Sundried (all grades) were offered; we do not expect to see any meaningful quantities of Djimmah type until February and Lekempti/Sidamo (Natural) until March so local tightness is likely to continue for a few more weeks.
Minimum registration prices for New Crop Sidamo 2 is over 220 c/lb FOB, which is too rich for most standard Sidamo 2 buyers. The Coffee and Tea Authority (CTA) does not seem to understand that there are different qualities of Sidamo 2 and that most will only find a market if traded at much lower levels; in time we believe that this minimum registration price will be reviewed to better reflect levels where larger buyers and standard quality is tradable.
Ethiopia appears to be much more peaceful this week although there remains a heavy military presence in Tigray region.
Birr/USD = 38.34
Have a gd wkend.