The Government in Ethiopia is struggling to keep a lid on price increases, this week the price of fuel at the pump increased by 20%, which prompted the Black rate for the Birr to also accelerate deviating from the official rate, one USD is now worth 96 Birr on the black market whereas the official […]
In a recently published report, Deloitte pegged Ethiopia’s GDP growth for 2021 at 6.3%, higher than the previously estimated 4.0%; no doubt that the Coffee Sector’s contribution was very important. For 2022 Growth is expected lower at 3.8%, with coffee shipments lower this year than last, we expect that the sector’s contribution will be reflected […]
Whilst the official Forex rate has remained stable over the past few months, the Black market rate has been devaluing continuously, this week reaching 90 Birr to the USD. We last reported on forex rates in August when the Black Market rate reached 85 Birr to the USD, having lost another 6% in the past […]
Much less activity this week as the terminal market moved lower having lost a chunk of the gains made a couple of weeks’ ago. Focus is turning to the upcoming crop and it’s potential. The coming crop in the South (Yirgacheffe and Sidamo) is looking larger than the 21/22 crop which is good news, we […]
Fighting has resumed along the Southern border of Tigray region. Additionally the Tigray authorities reported that government aircraft bombed a hospital in Mekele in Tigray region. It is a very sad state of affair after so much hope that the conflict was close to a peaceful resolution. The worsening of the conflict in the context […]
This week the terminal market helped shippers book some business at attractive prices, above 200 c/lb for Grade 5 and above 320 c/lb for Sidamo 2 and yirgacheffes. Offers were easy to comeby, however the quality on offer is a different story, buyers have to be careful and discretionary when buying or they can end […]
We have commented in the past weeks that the forex rate has been stable in 2022, however the official rate hides problems that underlie the Ethiopian economy. Below we track the Black Market exchange rate USD/Birr and it is clear to see that the Central Bank official rate is not reflecting the real value of […]
Although accumulated export figures from March to July 2022 are lagging behind the same period in 2021 by 13 K MT, there still is a good chance that by the time we reach Feb 2023 this gap will have narrowed. The only month where shipments between the 2 years was large was April (2022 21 […]
Bucking the trend, the inflation rate in June declined from 37.7% the previous month to 34%. It will be interesting to see if this can be sustained as a decline in inflation is a rarity these days! The oficial forex rate continues very stable to the USD, so imported inflation is limited to goods and […]
June shipments reached 38 K MT, not quite the 40 K MT of June 2021 but not far off it! It is clear that the current logistics constraints, in part brought on by reduced imports, have played a role in restricting the movement of coffee for export. We expect exports to continue at an elevated […]
