Entries by Charles Seara Cardoso

Forex caos, inflation and war

The Government in Ethiopia is struggling to keep a lid on price increases, this week the price of fuel at the pump increased by 20%, which prompted the Black rate for the Birr to also accelerate deviating from the official rate, one USD is now worth 96 Birr on the black market whereas the official […]

Economic growth better than expected

In a recently published report, Deloitte pegged Ethiopia’s GDP growth for 2021 at 6.3%, higher than the previously estimated 4.0%; no doubt that the Coffee Sector’s contribution was very important. For 2022 Growth is expected lower at 3.8%, with coffee shipments lower this year than last, we expect that the sector’s contribution will be reflected […]

Of Forex and Exports

Whilst the official Forex rate has remained stable over the past few months, the Black market rate has been devaluing continuously, this week reaching 90 Birr to the USD. We last reported on forex rates in August when the Black Market rate reached 85 Birr to the USD, having lost another 6% in the past […]

Biz resumes after Summer dip

This week the terminal market helped shippers book some business at attractive prices, above 200 c/lb for Grade 5 and above 320 c/lb for Sidamo 2 and yirgacheffes. Offers were easy to comeby, however the quality on offer is a different story, buyers have to be careful and discretionary when buying or they can end […]

Forex on the brink

We have commented in the past weeks that the forex rate has been stable in 2022, however the official rate hides problems that underlie the Ethiopian economy. Below we track the Black Market exchange rate USD/Birr and it is clear to see that the Central Bank official rate is not reflecting the real value of […]

Inflation rate drops in June

Bucking the trend, the inflation rate in June declined from 37.7% the previous month to 34%. It will be interesting to see if this can be sustained as a decline in inflation is a rarity these days! The oficial forex rate continues very stable to the USD, so imported inflation is limited to goods and […]