With the crop coming off trees in ernest, old crop is moving out of shippers warehouses and on to vessels at a steady pace and with an increased sense of urgency. Of course the recent upward movement in NY has also helped selling. We expect that November shipments will be steady following on from October exports which were an improvement on previous months’ shipments.

The harvest is approaching it’s peak now, all coffee growing regions are harvesting and so far we have no quality concerns. There is less cash in the field for cherry buying than in previous years which will limit the proportion of Washed Coffee, however the price remains well below last year’s price so export prices will not be under the same pressure as last season. In guji prices are now between 35 and 40 Birr/kg Cherry.

Weather continues favourable for ripening of the crop with intermittent wet and dry periods.

The BBC has report on a cholera outbreak in the east of the country following floods: https://www.bbc.com/news/world/africa?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=656862cb6868a4009ac43095%26Ethiopia%20cholera%20outbreak%20kills%2023%262023-11-30T10%3A56%3A13.317Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:3aad4f18-02eb-45a8-adc1-0cc91a6b9f1f&pinned_post_asset_id=656862cb6868a4009ac43095&pinned_post_type=share

Birr 55.70 = USD 1

Have a good weekend!

Exports for October topped 20 K MT; Shippers started “throwing in the towel” under pressure from Coffee & Tea Authority penalties, seeing the New Crop on the trees ready to be picked and steady prices. November shipments should continue this recent improved performance aided by the recent buoyant NY terminal market which as come just in time to help clear warehouses waiting to receive New Crop coffee. These strong October shipment figures followed on from very robust September shipments, however 22/23 exports are lagging behind expectations and even if the coming months register above average shipments by the time New Crop coffees come to market (March 2024) shipments will still be lower than expected.

Washing stations in the South have started receiving cherries, prices are 25 Birr/kg. It really seems that thus far stakeholders have taken heed of last years pricing chaos and have become much more disciplined (last year cherry prices in the South were between twice and 3 times current prices). There is also much less cash available in the field for cherry buying, leading to less competition which in the past has fueled pricing hikes.

Currently there is not much interest for new crop offers, it appears that roasters are waiting for lower prices and/or clarity on demand. Trade buyers are put off by the lack of carry in the market and high (even if stable) interest rates.

In other news, one year on from the peace deal between Tigray rebels and the Government, the BBC reports on the situation in the North of the country: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-67290495

Birr 55.63 = USD 1

Have a good weekend.