July 2021 exports just shy of 30,000 MT. March to July 2021 exports total 158 k MT vs 123 k MT same 5 month period in 2020. This means that Ethiopia has exported over half a million bags more of the 2020/21 crop than at this point 12 months ago of the 19/20 crop. At this rate exports will top 5 M bags by Feb 2022! We expect the pace to tapper over the coming months, the peak is over and coffee arriving in Addis is currently down to a trickle. The wet weather has made roads impassable and terminal market volatility disrupted the steady flow of coffee from agrabe to shipper. Not to mention the ongoing and worsening logistical situation. If things are bad in the Far East and in Brazil, imagine how Africa is coping with challenging logistics! Not very well, believe me.
Anyway we should not complain, pace of exports so far this 20/21 crop have been good, we foresee many challenges going forward due to difficult logistics, market volatility and an increasingly uncertain security situation. However, the past few months have been positive for the Ethiopian coffee supply chain, if the flow slows down a little now it is to be expected. Trading has slowed down considerably, not many shippers have coffee to sell and sourcing in the interior is is difficult as agrabes continue to ask for sky high prices.
Birr 44.78 = USD 1
Have a good weekend.