A lot has happened on the terminal market in the last 3 weeks, all said and done, we are now roughly 20 cents higher than we were before the frosts and subsequent panic that saw the market travel from 155 to 213 and back to around 175 today.
In Ethiopia this has stopped trading altogether there is nothing arriving in Addis from the growing areas. Middlemen that already sensed they had the upper hand on shippers before the July shenanigans have stuck to demanding around 200 c/lb FOB equivalent for Grade 4 and 5 coffees. Shippers cannot absorb these loses so have stopped buying and consequently coffee arriving in Addis is down to a trickle. After 4 months (March to June) of record exports we now bracing ourselves for record defaults and delays!
Logistics are a disaster, there are no containers in Addis, it takes us a minimum of 2 weeks to get an empty box to stuff. Afterwards coffee lies waiting for weeks to get a slot on a vessel, there are continuous vessel cancellations and slots are starting to resemble gold! To add to our many logistical woes trains on their way to Djibouti have had to return to Addis mid-journey due to violence in the Afar region that lies Northwest of Addis and has to be crossed to get to Djibouti.
In light of these challenges expect delays and traders tearing their hair to fulfil delivery deadlines and to cover commitments.
Birr 44.57 = USD 1
Have a good weekend.