Arrivals in Addis from upcountry slowing down fast

Hi

With little coffee arriving from upcountry and the ongoing good shipment pace, stocks in Addis are starting to look depleted. Much less coffee is arriving in Addis due to seasonality, rains making roads unpassable and high price expectations of agrabes impeding trade. Middlemen having sold most of their stocks are now holding out for high prices in the knowledge that shippers are short and volumes available in Addis are very much reduced. In light of this we expect in August to record lower shipments than in July and June, but it is in September that we expect a more significant drop in pace of exports. Offers from exporters are hard to come by and the few that offer are asking for high prices that are not viable in a declining terminal market. Weatherwise, the current colder and wetter weather is normal for this time of the year.

As normal the Birr continues to devalue at a steady pace to the USD, however basic necessities’ price inflation is very high and some are questioning the relevance of the current forex policy.

Birr 45.05 = USD 1

Have a good weekend.