Large shippers have slowed down activity considerably

Larger shippers are really struggling to acquire, mill and ship coffee. Most have slowed down their operations to a trickle compared to the peak shipment months leading up to June. This is coinciding with a considerable decrease in import activity and consequent reduction in the availability of containers in Addis Ababa. It is fortunate that March to July were very higher export months allowing a higher than usual share of the crop to be shipped. The ongoing fighting in Ethiopia is starting to slow down economic activity, negatively impacting imports and inflation is once again gaining pace.

As mentioned, the fighting between Tigray forces and the National Army supported by local militias continues unabated, the latest as reported by the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-47639452?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=61277d6eb19a573a6ec3821f%26Tigray%20fighters%20accused%20of%20killing%2035%20in%20Amhara%262021-08-26T12%3A08%3A43.715Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:0dfd5510-0845-4cc7-9c31-d7860b2ab9a0&pinned_post_asset_id=61277d6eb19a573a6ec3821f&pinned_post_type=share

Middlemen sitting on coffee are starting to get a little restless, as shippers are not willing to pay the equivalent of 200 c/lb FOB for Naturals; nevertheless there is no indication that agrabes are settling for anything close to commercially viable prices. If in a few weeks’ time NY terminal market remains below recent highs, when roads are less waterlogged and the next crop starts to ripen, there will be a shift in priorities and we expect that middlemen will release their last stocks at more reasonable prices.

Birr 45.27 = USD 1

Have a good weekend.