October exports buck the trend

Since March, 2022 monthly shipments have been below 2021 monthly exports, however for October shipments in 2022 were higher (just!) than in 2021. It’s a blip, there is very little coffee around and despite the total collapse in NY over the last few weeks shippers are struggling to deliver on Grade 5 sales made a few months ago at prices around 200 c/lb. Shippers are conscious that if they do not deliver, buyers are only too happy to cancel these contracts buy from the trade of simply buy back hedges, however if the coffee does not exist it cannot be shipped! On the other hand Washed coffee longs cannot find buyers are anywhere close to the prices they want to sell Limu 2 is offered at 300 c/lb and Sidamo 2 at 315 c/lb…

Overall 2022 shipments vs 2021 are down, for the period March to October 2021 exports totalled 235 K MT (11% more than the current year’s 211 K MT) despite the higher prices. The lower exports are, of course, a direct consequence of the lower 21/22 crop, particularly lower in Sidamo region. November shipment should be lower than October, although we expect that shippers will be trying their hardest to fulfil commitments, any unshipped contract will be costly to the exporter.

Birr 53.00 = USD 1

Have a good weekend.