Another up week in NY leading to increased activity in Ethiopia. One does get the sense though, that there has been a lot of selling in the past few weeks and that shippers are now concerned with covering rather than selling at higher prices! The supply of coffee to ECX is down to a trickle, in the last 5 trading days only 1,600 MT were traded; we would have expected at least 4 times that figure; In the last 3 years during the same period between 6,000 and 7,000 MT were sold at ECX! With the ECX quickly disappearing as a source of coffee for shippers, vertical integration supply chains are being challenged by short shippers desperate to access coffee and agrabes that see opportunities to increase their returns daily. The relationships between shippers and agrabes are being stretched, shippers financed agrabes want “their” coffee and agrabes demand higher prices more reflective of a higher terminal market. Eventually things will sort themselves out, for now stakeholders haggle. Export Logistics have not improved, containers and slots on vessels are hard to come by. In spite of these challenges we are still expecting very strong export figures for the month of April.
Covid cases (and thankfully related deaths) continue to decline and a heavy military presence throughout the country if keeping the peace.
Birr 42.13 = USD 1
Have a good weekend.