So next Monday is election day in Ethiopia; it has been a long-time in coming, originally meant for mid 2020, the ballot was postponed more than once. For more background on this major political event please follow the link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57102189
Shippers stopped loading export containers from Wednesday onwards to avoid having cargo in transit during the election period. Likewise, coffee stopped moving from upcountry to export mills in Addis in anticipation of the ballot.
The last couple of weeks had seen the logistical situation improve a tad, with more availability of containers and slots on vessels, however shippers were experiencing delays in Coffee Liquoring Unit (CLU) approval of export samples for up to 3 days.
Business activity has slowed somewhat. NY moving off the highs, Elections and sheer volume of previously established commitments have all played a hand in reducing the quantities changing hands from shippers to overseas buyers. Some roasters are still looking for specific qualities, however having filled up during the recent rally in NY, are now holding back a little waiting for execution of unshipped business.
As we enter the rainy season we expect both quality and volume arriving in Addis to decrease. Volumes will decrease because roads become impassable and wet weather is not conducive to transporting coffee. As a consequence of this limitation in supply to shippers, agrabes will try to sell their lower quality to shippers in need of coffee to fulfil their commitments. From October, weather improves and whatever stocks remain upcountry need to be sold so the tables turn, and agrabes will be the ones needing to sell their balance stocks before new crop becomes available at farmgate level.
Monday is a holiday in Ethiopia, hopefully the poll is peaceful and normal activities will resume thereafter.
Birr 43.50 = USD 1
Have a good weekend.
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