Shipments reached 190 k MT for the period March to September 2022 vs. 213 k MT for the same period, March to September, in 2021. The 4 year average (18 to 21) for the same period is 179 k MT. It is positive that the current off-cycle year exports is above the 4 year average and a clear indication that Ethiopia production is increasing.
Cherry prices are between 50 Birr/kg in Limu and 63 Birr/kg in Yirgacheffe. It is becoming increasingly clear that agrabes are banking on a devaluation of the currency to generate a positive return on their trade. With NY crashing through the 2 USD level last week and continuing southwards this week this is the only way we see a positive return. The crop is expected larger is the more traditional washed coffee producing regions (Sidamo, Guhi, Yirgacheffe) so differentials should soften in 2022/23 viz-a-viz 2021/22.
Meanwhile current crop availability in Naturals is tight, we are struggling to get pre-shipment samples despite the lower replacement levels afforded by the lower terminal market. This is a clear indication that the crop is well sold and shipments will continue to be lower than in 2021.
In a bid to further control inflation and keep a tight grip on the economy, the Government has forbidden the importation of 38 different goods, including cars!
Birr 52.78 = USD 1
Have a good weekend.
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