The trend continues, total shipments for 9 month period, May 2020 to January 2021, 155 K MT which is 25% lower viz a viz the previous year. By all accounts February shipments are also progressing at a reduced pace. We are coming to conclusion that by April shipments will be 1 M bags lower than the previous 12 months.

(Ethiopia Exports in MT)

In other news there were some worrying headlines regarding a possible restructuring of Government Debt held in Private hands. This news comes as the Government is reworking its debts to the Paris Club. After these negotiations are finalised it is expected that the Government will seeks similar arrangements with Private creditors. The effects of the pandemic on the economy have been further exacerbated by the conflict in Tigray leaving the Ethiopian Treasury in a pickle.

At ECX washed coffees are selling well, with agrabes happy to accept exporter bid levels as volumes offered increase weekly; the inverse is true for Naturals, where agrabes are reluctant to accept bids, as exporters vie for the reduced volumes available. Most of the “new” licensed exporters are active in lower qualities market (Grade 5) and there are so many competing for what is offered that agrabes believe they could be achieving higher prices than the Maximum Prices set by ECX. Meanwhile, we believe that larger exporters continue to rollover contracts as buying to cover old commitments is nearly impossible.

Birr 39.65 to the greenback

Have a good weekend.

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