Inflation decreases in May

May inflation rate = 30.8 % which might sound like a high rate of inflation however it’s the lowest monthly rate since 2021 and a decrease from 33.5% in April 2023. Unfortunately that is where the good news stops! The problems that have been plaguing the coffee business in Ethiopia we have been mentioning time and time again in recent weeks persist:

1. Rain and humidity
2. Poor quality, particularly in Grade 5 coffees from the Wellega (Lekempti) and Djimmah areas
3. Delays in internal movement of coffee from growing areas to Addis, a consequence of the heavy rain
4. Pressure to export piled on by the Government
5. Low Export registrations

Shippers are so delayed with their shipments, however it is a general situation, we are not able to single out one or two as worse or better than others, everyone is late and quality is very poor.

We have had conversations with a few shippers in Athens this week and the general feeling is that quality will not improve this crop. The general situation for coffee in Ethiopia is quite depressing with all stakeholders unhappy with the coffee business and struggling to keep above water. Things can only get better, but will they?

We are early on in the shipment season, however we projecting that exports for teh coming months will be below potential, the last 3 months (March to May) exports reached 68 K MT well below the 5 year average of 78 K MT and last year’s at May shipments.

Birr 54.54 = USD 1

Have a good weekend.