Exports explode in June

Once again shipments are up. As the graph below clearly shows, Ethiopian shippers are rushing to get the crop on vessels; No doubt that some urgency is due to the elections held last month, however I feel that the last few weeks NY price action allowed for lots of business to be concluded and even with many logistical constraints coffee has been getting on vessels. We should not understate the significance of achieving nearly 40 K MT shipped in one month, the previous record was 32 K MT (set in May), that is an increase of 8 K MT on the previous record or 25%. We expect that the July figures will be strong, however we are not expecting them higher than the June shipments. Later on in the year the pace will drop drastically, since the 20/21 crop is decent but production will not be able to sustain this pace of shipments.

The wet weather has caused some problems in getting coffee from the growing areas to Addis. Roads have been washed way making them impassable, these instances are usual for this time of the year, during the rainy season.

Twelve month Inflation rate at June 21 was 24.5 % (May 19.5%).

The situation in the North of the country is a mess: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57703538

And the dam issue resurfaces escalating tensions with Egypt: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57734885

Birr 43.89 = USD 1

Have a great weekend.