Heavy rain has been reported throughout the coffee growing regions of Ethiopia and Addis Ababa, with mixed blessings for the coffee industry. On the one hand the rain is greatly benefiting the crop on the tree, on the other hand, transportation of coffee of the current crop from the growing areas to Addis for processing is severely hampered by deteriorating roads. Stored coffee stocks are also absorbing air moisture which is not doing the already very compromised quality any favours.

Signaling that export registrations continue below expectations the Coffee & Tea Authority decreased minimum registration prices this week to the lowest levels in 3 months.

April export figures were below March’s. This in itself is not surprising since the 5 year average also follows this trend, however it was the lowest April in 6 years and when we look at the 6 month period November 22 to April 23 every month is below average and most months recording the lowest export volume in the last 5/6 years. Overall shipments are very disappointing, Ethiopia stats start the year in July; comparing the 10 month period July 22 to April 23 (180 K MT) to same period in 21/22 (230 K MT), shipments are down by 50 K MT, on average this represents a 5 K MT monthly decline in shipments; we expect this will continue in May and June. If we are correct in our assessment of the situation, shipments will drop by 1 M bags between 21/22 and 22/23 (July to June) from 5 M bags to 4 M bags.

Exports of coffee in the 9 month period June 20222 to March 2023 totaled USD 897 M with Horticultural products still far behind at USD 514 M; However, the far more liberalised Horticultural sector is outperforming Coffee in other aspects; horticulture export earnings growth rate is outpacing the Coffee sector’s and if the current trend continues the Horticulture sector will become more relevant in the years to come.

Violence continues to sporadically plague the country: https://www.bbc.com/news/world/africa?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6458f4c9588b295993d1abb5%26Ruling%20party%20official%20killed%20in%20Ethiopia%20-%20report%262023-05-08T13%3A44%3A24.505Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:bd6d6686-5f27-4af3-bb28-cec922990e80&pinned_post_asset_id=6458f4c9588b295993d1abb5&pinned_post_type=share

Birr 54.22 = USD 1

Have a good weekend.

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