Executive Summary

▪ The 2017-18 crop is revised slightly higher to 388,645MT (6,477k bags), still 3% lower than the 2016-17 crop.

▪ The 2018-19 crop is estimated at 437,267MT (7,288k bags), 13% higher than 2017-18crop. The volume of washed and sundried production is estimated at 67,994 MT (16%) and 369,273MT (84%) respectively.

▪ Harvesting is estimated to peak between the 22nd  of November and the 22nd  of December across the major coffee producing regions (South and West), and about 99% of country production will be harvested by the middle of Jan 2019.  This represents a move of 21days earlier in harvesting pace vs. 2017-18.

▪ The majority of washing stations in the southern region (Sidamo / Yirgacheffe qualities) opened at the close of October and could have opened even earlier if unrest had not held delayed the governments decision to grant operating permission.

▪ Challenging drying conditions across the first four weeks of operation (SH Oct/FH Nov) mean that monitoring of drying conditions remains vital for the rest of the season and early qualities of washed may be deteriorated.

▪ Rumoured big shorts already taken on in the Export market for Unwashed Gr 4’s, which was undersupplied in 2017/18 could see early season pricing at ECX high and a squeeze on supply.  Based on patterns of this year, depending on the size of the short this could spill into the Djimma complex, which is often blended into Sidamo when supply is inadequate.

▪ The change in regulation enacted in 2016/17 and ratified in October of this year mean that many exporters have taken up the opportunity to engage with certification at the washing station level most obviously in the West.