EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2019/20 crop (off-year) The crop was forecast lower than the previous crop by 5% and ended up being even lower at 402 K MT (we had estimated 411 K MT). Split between Washed and Natural 20% and 80%, due to the sharp decline in production in the South where a higher % of […]
Following some very decent volume of business enabled by the recent rally in NY, business has come to an abrupt halt as ECX and Exporter offering prices have risen and the terminal market price declined. Volumes at ECX continue to disappoint and shippers in need to cover recently established shorts scramble for the reduced volumes […]
The number of COVID related deaths in Ethiopia has passed 700 worryingly, over 50% of these registered in August, which indicates that the disease is accelerating in the country. Conversely, shipments in August are reported sharply down to 1 year ago, we have told that whereas in August 2019 shipments were over 30 K MT, […]
The recent NY rally gave shippers an opportunity to sell to the trade which booked some decent differentials. Now, these commitments need to be covered at ECX which have pushed the prices at the Addis Ababa Exchange through the roof to levels way above where shippers sold, Lekempti traded at ECX this week at levels […]
The rally in NY this week made for some more attractive differentials which in turn allowed for some shippers to register some contracts and Roasters book some more attractive (than in recent weeks) differentials. Djimmah traded down to below 20 under FOB CAD and Lekempti traded at a small premium to Djimmah, which allowed biz […]
ECX sales volumes are a fraction of what they were 12 months ago. If this trend continues the output for 20/21 is going to see a sharp decline vs 19/20, which saw record exports as reported last week. Below we compare the ECX sales between the 23rd June and 21stJuly for 2020, 2019 and 2018; at […]
We received the official Export figure for the 19/20 Ethiopia Calendar year (July/June) and below compare these to the previous 12 months: The total exports for 19/20 reached 271 K MT (4.5 M bags), this is 17% more than in 18/19 and reflects the large crop of 18/19 and the drawdown on stocks that we […]
Internet was reconnected to businesses and households this week; data services on mobile phones still not working as the government continues to manage a restless population in the wake of the recent political upheaval. Three weeks without the internet has further exasperated an already difficult season, at least we can communicate with our suppliers and […]
Following a complicated few days, last week businesses and life, in general, returned to somewhere close to normality in Ethiopia this week, however, internet access is still very restricted; only a few organizations have been switched on; so imagine how much your daily work life would be disrupted if you did not have email or […]
Earlier this week we wrote about the unrest and lockdown that followed the murder on Monday night of Hachalu Hundessa a prominent Oromo activist. Hundessa was buried yesterday and today Addis is starting to re-open for business; our office is opened as are many shops and other businesses. Internet connectivity is still patchy but we believe […]
